Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.053896 0.061490 0.070012 0.080331 0.092548 0.106625 0.124181
2025-12-07 0.043427 0.052993 0.064651 0.080069 0.100164 0.125810 0.161572
2025-12-14 0.034930 0.045074 0.058326 0.077244 0.104113 0.141793 0.200271
2025-12-21 0.027283 0.036867 0.050137 0.070360 0.101336 0.148643 0.229812
2025-12-28 0.023260 0.032891 0.047021 0.070039 0.108190 0.172053 0.294599
2026-01-04 0.020424 0.030148 0.045225 0.071441 0.118470 0.205020 0.392313
2026-01-11 0.017862 0.027398 0.042941 0.071644 0.127137 0.239156 0.513030
2026-01-18 0.015727 0.024985 0.040787 0.071670 0.135844 0.277838 0.671707
2026-01-25 0.013672 0.022382 0.037853 0.069635 0.140101 0.309820 0.841440
2026-02-01 0.011797 0.019812 0.034545 0.066153 0.140394 0.333586 1.012683
2026-02-08 0.010632 0.018352 0.033075 0.066206 0.149204 0.385252 1.337739
2026-02-15 0.009659 0.017106 0.031816 0.066464 0.158928 0.446543 1.789156
2026-02-22 0.008882 0.016152 0.031044 0.067859 0.173034 0.534419 2.534791
2026-03-01 0.008167 0.015220 0.030161 0.068824 0.186773 0.634216 3.597287
2026-03-08 0.007377 0.014026 0.028505 0.067420 0.192941 0.712105 4.769007
2026-03-15 0.006456 0.012437 0.025704 0.062284 0.184841 0.723273 5.471568
2026-03-22 0.005980 0.011749 0.024903 0.062599 0.196490 0.843365 7.813884
2026-03-29 0.005634 0.011298 0.024600 0.064328 0.214750 1.023844 12.136721
2026-04-05 0.005266 0.010752 0.023969 0.064929 0.229252 1.206571 18.357204
2026-04-12 0.004926 0.010229 0.023313 0.065302 0.243437 1.414433 28.166198
2026-04-19 0.004543 0.009558 0.022167 0.063765 0.248346 1.566492 39.669142
2026-04-26 0.004148 0.008816 0.020722 0.060852 0.245328 1.653570 51.482126
2026-05-03 0.003909 0.008426 0.020190 0.061082 0.258986 1.928105 83.783630